ASHR (Xtrackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF) China Bottom Appears To Be Gone

ASHR is demonstrating exceptional trend persistence, having secured a new 52-week high Wednesday while most market participants remained focused on domestic technology sector volatility. However, a critical bearish divergence is forming at these fresh highs, with RSI failing to reach the 64 threshold on the breakout session—a technical warning sign that momentum velocity may be decelerating despite nominal price strength. Money flow analysis of institutional "Power Hour" activity from 3:00 to 4:00 PM has shown exceptional strength since mid-November, indicating sustained large capital allocation consistent with fulfilling institutional mandates.

The technical architecture demonstrates that ASHR has generated significant outperformance versus the S&P 500 since early September, confirming a structural regime shift as capital systematically flows back into CSI 300 constituents. The bearish RSI divergence at these 52-week highs presents a textbook overbought configuration that warrants tactical caution rather than momentum-chasing behavior. A mean-reversion pullback over the next two to three weeks targeting the $33.65 level would represent a healthy consolidation and provide an attractive reload opportunity for patient systematic traders.

This price action represents a sustained multi-month breakout pattern rather than transient speculative positioning, providing meaningful tailwind support for broader emerging market portfolio allocations seeking non-U.S. equity exposure. The key confirmation signal under observation is whether FXI (the broader China large-cap index) validates this breakout with corresponding new highs, which would strengthen the investment thesis for Chinese equity exposure. The path of least resistance remains constructive despite elevated technical readings, though the divergence pattern suggests consolidation is more probable than immediate continuation in the near term.

ITB (iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF) Housing Sigma Move Warning Bell

Home construction experienced severe distribution pressure Wednesday, printing a -3.4% single-session decline that represents a -2 standard deviation event and serves as a significant technical warning signal for portfolios with concentrated exposure to domestic builders. The index has breached the critical 50 RSI threshold for the first time since the beginning of February, confirming that the sector’s previous resilience to elevated interest rate conditions is experiencing structural deterioration. The 5-day cumulative drawdown of -5% is occurring against a backdrop of a rising 200-day moving average, creating a concerning divergence as selling pressure intensifies.

The performance dispersion between the advancing S&P 500 and the declining home construction sector represents a classic intermarket warning signal that warrants elevated attention from portfolio managers monitoring rotation dynamics. This sector is expected to remain under technical pressure for approximately one additional week, with downside price action likely targeting the 200-day moving average currently positioned at the $101 level. Upon successful testing and holding of that support structure, ITB should present a favorable risk-reward entry opportunity for a recovery move toward the $109 level, with a longer-term price objective of $115 over subsequent weeks.

Concentrated sector-specific selloffs of this magnitude are relatively uncommon in industries that previously demonstrated post-pandemic recovery leadership and reliable cyclical beta characteristics. The previous highs established in September at $118 are expected to remain unchallenged for an extended period as the sector undergoes valuation repricing and base formation. ITB currently occupies a tactical avoidance zone until observable evidence emerges of base formation at the 200-day moving average or a significant structural shift in the yield curve that could stabilize mortgage demand conditions and builder sentiment metrics.

COPX (Global X Copper Miners ETF) Copper Miners Ride Growth Wave

Copper mining equities are functioning as the primary alpha generator within the global growth trade, posting a substantial +11.3% advance over the last five trading sessions as the sector approaches its previous peak established January 29th at $99.99. The ETF is currently trading approximately $4 below that critical resistance level, and institutional order flow patterns suggest continued accumulation toward the $98 zone over the next several sessions, which would complete this phase of the rally cycle. It bears emphasis that COPX struggled to maintain support at the $85 level intermittently since late January before this five-day acceleration definitively broke the consolidation range.

From a technical analysis perspective, the relative strength versus SPY has been exceptional since early June, complemented by persistently positive money flow extending back to May—with the singular exception being distribution activity during late October and early November when the ETF traded range-bound. The "Dr. Copper" macroeconomic indicator is providing clear signals that the global industrial cycle has transitioned into an expansion phase, with COPX serving as the highest-beta expression of this fundamental thesis. The technical breakout above $85 was accompanied by Bollinger Band widening, characteristics consistent with institutional trend acceleration rather than speculative retail positioning.

Institutional order flow exhibits significant urgency, indicating that large capital allocators are prioritizing exposure to the mining complex in advance of a potential retest of the January highs. This trade represents the critical intersection between traditional industrial commodity demand and the substantial copper requirements for global energy infrastructure development. Provided price action maintains structural integrity above the $85 breakout threshold, COPX remains a core tactical allocation delivering substantial alpha relative to broader indices, though tactical profit-taking and consolidation should be anticipated once the $98-$100 resistance zone is tested.

JETS (U.S. Global Jets ETF) Failed Recovery For Global Airlines

JETS presents as a case study in failed sector recovery dynamics, though the current technical setup suggests the airline sector requires additional time for consolidation following the recent high of $31.33 established approximately two weeks prior. The sector has experienced a retracement to the $28 level, with RSI readings falling below the 50 neutral threshold, confirming that near-term momentum has shifted negative. Money flow patterns over the trailing four-month period have demonstrated significant choppiness, contrasting sharply with the institutional accumulation characteristics observed during the four months preceding that period.

Technical exhaustion within the airline sector is further confirmed by deteriorating relative strength versus SPY since early December, indicating that market leadership has rotated away from this cyclical travel segment. While operational load factors may remain satisfactory, equity markets function as forward-looking discounting mechanisms currently pricing in margin compression for carriers over the next two fiscal quarters. The price action exhibits a classic "lower high" formation followed by support breakdown, representing an unfavorable technical configuration within a broader bull market environment.

For systematic traders, JETS currently provides instructive lessons in entry discipline and tactical patience rather than sector avoidance. Tactical entry opportunities are favored in the $29-$30 zone, with a price objective of $31.25 anticipated over the next three weeks following exhaustion of the current distribution phase and return of institutional buying interest. When a sector demonstrates inability to attract capital during broad risk asset rallies, optimal entry timing becomes paramount—current technical conditions suggest awaiting capitulation signals before capital deployment into what remains a fundamentally sound long-term travel recovery thesis.

EWA (iShares MSCI Australia ETF) Australia Secures New 52-Week High

Australia delivered exceptional international equity performance during the session, advancing +2% to establish a definitive new 52-week high at $29.85, though this breakout represents a relatively recent technical development rather than an extended duration trend. EWA initiated outperformance versus the S&P 500 in terms of relative strength analysis only within the past several weeks, yet money flow metrics have demonstrated exceptional strength and persistence since early summer. Despite range-bound price action between $27.50 and $24.50 over an extended period, the underlying accumulation pattern was constructing institutional conviction beneath the surface.

A significant technical inflection occurred in late January when Australia achieved a decisive breakout above the $27.60 resistance level, registering an overbought 70 RSI reading that typically signals momentum exhaustion but in this instance marked the initiation of sustained upward momentum. The ETF has maintained consistent upward progression since that breakout event, exhibiting the clean price action characteristics that institutional portfolio managers favor for aggressive position sizing. This advance is occurring in perfect synchronization with explosive strength in copper and silver prices, creating a powerful "Commodity Currency" convergence trade that is delivering favorable results for macro-oriented allocators seeking developed market commodity exposure.

The near-term price objective for this advance approximates current trading levels in the $30.50 zone, suggesting that immediate upside potential may be constrained from these elevated technical readings. A healthy mean-reversion pullback to the $29 level over the next three weeks would represent an attractive accumulation opportunity for portfolios seeking increased international equity exposure. The simultaneous occurrence of EWA establishing fresh highs while U.S. housing sectors experience deterioration provides compelling confirmation of the "Global Expansion over Domestic Contraction" thematic framework, with Australia serving as a leading indicator for the sustainability of this commodity-driven equity rally cycle.

---

Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.

---