Bullish wedge and cup and handle patterns point higher on copper

Copper Futures broke out from a late-January into early-April falling (bullish) wedge and confirmed a three-month bullish cup-and-handle pattern last week. The immediate setup remains bullish above the cup-and-handle neckline at 6.15, placing the focus to the upside.

Initial resistance is 6.58-6.63, which marks late January spike high and 61.8% extension of the August 2025-January 2026 rally projected from the March low, but the bullish technical patterns support further upside to 7.05 (February-May bullish consolidation target) and 7.50 (100% extension).

From a risk management perspective, the handle lows from mid-April and last week at 5.82-5.76 represent key support levels. A sustained break below those areas would weaken the immediate bullish setup and suggest the breakout is failing.

Overall, as long as copper remains above the 6.15 neckline area and the handle lows at 5.82-5.76, the technical evidence favors continuation higher with the potential for an acceleration phase if nearby resistance at 6.58–6.63 is decisively exceeded.

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Silver shows bullish wedges – both absolute and relative to the S&P 500

A 49.7% correction from late January into late March formed a falling (aka bullish) wedge for silver on both an absolute price basis and relative to the S&P 500 (SPX). Similar to copper futures (highlighted above), silver confirmed this bullish wedge in early April.

Silver futures have reasserted a longer-term bullish trend after defending rising 26- and 40-week moving averages (WMAs) as support from late March into early May. Sustaining last week’s rally above the 13-WMA at 79.42 and this week’s push above 83.25 would increase conviction in this bullish setup with resistances on silver at early March lower high at 97.30 and at the start of the falling wedge (late-January peak) at 121.78.

If silver struggles with its breakouts above 83.25-79.42 (mid-April peak and 13-WMA), defending the rising 26-WMA and most recent higher low from 76.12 down to 71.31 is important. The rising 40-WMA near 65.29 reinforces the early-February and late-March lows at 63.90-61.21 as major support on silver.

Overall, the technical structure for silver remains constructive. Bullish wedges on both an absolute and relative basis versus the SPX suggest improving momentum and the potential for continued outperformance if the recent breakout levels continue to hold.

Gold remains within a bullish trend but is lagging copper and silver

Gold Futures continue to consolidate within bullish absolute and relative price trends as defined by rising 26- and 40-week moving averages (WMAs). However, unlike copper and silver, gold has yet to trigger a tactical breakout capable of extending its longer-term advance.

The rising 26- and 40-week moving averages provide important support near 4686 and 4384, respectively. Importantly, gold successfully defended its rising 40-WMA during the late-March pullback, keeping the broader uptrend intact. Additional support comes from the early-February low at 4421 and the late-March low at 4100.

In order for gold to regain its bullish luster, it most surpass its 13-WMA at 4833 and exceed its mid-April peak at 4918. A successful breakout above those levels is required to place the focus back on the early-March and late-January peaks at 5434 and 5626, respectively.

Relative to the S&P 500 Index, gold is testing an important bullish trend support zone near its rising 40-WMA and the December 2025 upside breakout level. In our view, this represents a must-hold area for preserving gold’s longer-term leadership trend versus equities.

Overall, the longer-term technical backdrop for gold remains constructive, but near-term momentum has lagged the stronger tactical breakouts recently seen in copper and silver. Sustained upside follow-through above 4833-4918 would likely improve confidence that gold is ready to resume its long-term bullish trend.

Silver bullish vs. gold on a retest of an 11-year base breakout relative to gold

The weekly chart of Silver Futures relative to Gold Futures declined from its January spike high to retest the breakout from an 11-year base formation in late March. Importantly, the silver-to-gold ratio has thus far held this major breakout zone, creating the potential for a constructive breakout-and-retest pattern that favors renewed leadership from silver relative to gold.

From a technical perspective, successful retests of major breakout levels following long-term base formations often reinforce the validity of the underlying trend change. In this case, defending the former resistance zone as new support would strengthen the view that silver is entering a new phase of relative outperformance versus gold.

A rising silver-to-gold ratio is also typically viewed as a bullish “risk-on” signal because silver tends to outperform during:

• Expanding economic expectations
• Improving industrial demand
• Strong commodity cycles
• Increasing investor risk appetite

By contrast, gold often outperforms silver during more defensive or risk-averse market environments.

As long as the silver-to-gold ratio remains above its late-March breakout retest zone, the technical evidence continues to favor ongoing relative strength from silver and a more constructive macro risk backdrop overall.

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