By Shane Murphy, CMT

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Crypto at Range Lows

Crypto continues to struggle, as more traditional risk assets like Emerging Market stocks and Smallcaps are performing well. Also, speculators are much more focused on precious metals – as Gold & Silver continue their ascension. Both the mega-cap giants Ethereum and Bitcoin are trading at range lows. Every rally has been sold over the last 3-months, not even a weak US Dollar has been enough to move the asset class higher.

If Bitcoin breaks down here – 70,000 is my next level of interest. For Ethereum, the 2,000 level would grab my attention. What we know from crypto’s brief price history, is that bear markets are long and steep – correcting through both price and time.

USDCAD at 52-week Lows

The US Dollar is losing ground against virtually every other developed market currency. The below chart displays the US Dollar / Canadian Dollar. The pair is at fresh 52-week lows and the 9-day rate-of-change printed its lowest reading since the April ’25 tariff tantrum.

With volatility like this in the FX market – one should expect a certain degree of mean reversion to follow. But a lot of technical damage has been done. The trend for the dollar is down!

BCOM Soaring as Breakevens Range

Are commodity prices telling us that inflation expectations are wrong? Even broad commodity baskets like the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) are breaking out to new multi-year highs – yet 10yr breakevens continue to range.

If anything, this chart tells us that sub 2% breakevens are likely a thing of the past. This will keep upward pressure on the long-end of the treasury curve.

Shane Murphy, CMT has been a CMT Charterholder since 2022. He is currently a Wealth Management Associate at Michael Roberts Associates, Inc. where he assists in portfolio construction, investment research, and financial planning. Learn more at www.mraplanners.com or check Shane out on twitter @murphycharts.

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