With the expected deal between the U.S. and Iran potentially being formalized on Friday, we are seeing a clear cross-asset reaction: crude oil has cratered, inflation expectations are easing, yields are moving lower, and long-duration assets are catching a bid.

That gives equities a more constructive backdrop, so let’s look at a few key charts.

Key Pivots on Two Mag 7 Names

The S&P 500 has taken out the 750-strike call resistance level, which already provides a constructive backdrop for equities as they look to retest recent all-time highs.

As promised yesterday, we’ll look at some of the Magnificent 7 components. In my opinion, the two most important names right now are Google and Amazon, especially after the market’s reaction to the expected U.S. and Iran peace deal.

The reason I am focusing on these two is not because the others are unimportant. They are still significant to the broader market and the AI theme. But several have been trading more to the beat of their own drum and have not necessarily disrupted the broader AI leadership that has driven equities this year. Google and Amazon, on the other hand, have participated more closely with the broader group of AI picks-and-shovels names, which makes their current pivots more important.

Google (GOOGL) found support after filling the April 30 gap and testing 345-strike put support. It is now sitting at an important pivot in the $370 to $375 zone, where the 20-day moving average lines up with this week’s 375-strike call resistance.

A move above that zone would likely target the 390 and potentially 400 call levels, while also bringing all-time highs back into focus.

If $370 to $375 proves to be resistance this week, the setup does not necessarily break down. As we move closer to OPEX, and especially after the 375-strike call resistance rolls off, the path higher could open if put support shifts toward 370 heading into July.

Amazon (AMZN) saw put support shift lower this week from the 235-strike to the 230-strike. That is the same general zone where price recently bounced, and it also lines up with the year-to-date anchored VWAP, the 126-day moving average, and the 200-day moving average.

On the upside, call resistance sits at the 250-strike this week, which also coincides with prior pivot highs. Bulls will want to see a move above that level to confirm continuation.

As we approach OPEX, we should see put support begin to migrate toward the 240-strike while 250-strike call resistance starts to fade. That combination could create a cleaner path for a potential release higher into the holiday weekend or early next week.

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Crude Oil Testing April Lows

Crude oil cratered overnight and is now testing the April 17, 2026 lows, while trying to find support at the 126-day, or six-month, moving average and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.

For context, that level aligns almost perfectly with USO put support at the 120-strike.

That support matters in the short term, but crude becomes more vulnerable post-OPEX as a large amount of the 120-strike put open interest rolls off. If price fails to hold as market participants continue to price in confirmation of the expected deal, the next level we would expect black gold to move toward is the mid-to-lower 70s.

That area could produce a potential reversion move, even if it proves short-lived.

From an options-positioning standpoint, the reason price could have room to move is that the next notable put open interest level does not show up until the 110-strike in the early July weekly expirations. If crude sees a fuller repricing into the mid-60s, USO could ultimately move toward peak put open interest at the 100-strike.

%, we would expect a move even lower toward 4.10%.

Yields Down, Not Out Yet

The 10-year Treasury yield is sitting on the July 2025 and March 2026 fakeout/breakout closing levels. This is the same zone that eventually shook equities in early May when yields pushed higher.

While momentum has shifted lower, yields are down, not out until we see further confirmation.

The 20-day moving average is rolling over for the first time since the April consolidation, and it will be worth monitoring as an important tell for equities going forward.

A breakdown below the support zone outlined above, along with the 50-day moving average, would likely send the 10-year yield back toward the lower 4.30% area in the near term.

The weekly chart also continues to put in a series of lower highs, which is good news for equity bulls. If medium term momentum follows through and we see a breakdown below 4.30%, we would expect an even lower move toward 4.10%.

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