Bitcoin Seeks Support at Key Zone: Bounce or Bearish Continuation?

Bitcoin is trading today at $73,236, having accumulated a significant decline from its all-time high near $125,000 reached in mid-2025. The price is currently resting on a highly relevant long-term support zone — the blue band between $60,000 and $67,000 — which historically acted as a ceiling in 2021 and 2022, and later as a launchpad for the 2024-2025 rally.

The most striking feature of the chart is the green arrow on the far right, pointing precisely to that zone as a potential bullish inflection point. Price has touched that support and is attempting to bounce, which could represent an interesting technical opportunity for buyers.

However, caution is warranted. The bearish structure from the highs remains clear, with highly volatile candles and no confirmed signs of a sustained recovery yet. As long as Bitcoin fails to convincingly break above $80,000, the technical bias remains bearish.

The key in the coming sessions will be whether price manages to hold above that support band — or whether it loses the level and opens the door to deeper losses.

Key Drivers Behind the Move

Post-geopolitical shock recovery: Following the initial escalation of the conflict (late February), BTC temporarily sold off but has since behaved as a mixed risk/safe-haven asset, rebounding strongly while oil prices surge. Some analysts see it as outperforming traditional equities in this environment. Institutional inflows: Bitcoin ETFs have seen strong net inflows (e.g. +$767M in a recent week according to some reports), alongside massive corporate buying (such as Strategy Inc. accumulating thousands of BTC).

This is a high-volatility moment — many see it as the beginning of a larger March rebound, but geopolitical risk remains very much alive.

Oil Breaks $100 and Threatens the Global Economy

The conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran, which began on February 28, has triggered the worst energy crisis in years. The Strait of Hormuz — the vital maritime chokepoint controlled by Iran — has been virtually closed to tanker traffic since the war began. Approximately 20% of the world’s oil supply flows through this critical passage. WTI has broken the psychological $100 barrier in several sessions this week, with elevated volumes and a clear bullish momentum. To put the magnitude of the move in perspective, before the U.S. and Israel launched their attacks on February 28, Brent was trading around $73 and WTI near $67.

The weekly chart provides the most revealing context. For years, price repeatedly bounced from the $55–65 support zone (green arrows), building a solid base. The bullish surge of recent weeks has been so aggressive that the current weekly candle is virtually a straight vertical line — something not seen visually since the 2022 shock.

The orange "?" on the chart near $120 is no coincidence: it captures the exact question every trader is asking right now. Does price have enough fuel to reach that historical resistance, or is the move so overextended that a pullback is imminent?

Technically, there are no meaningful resistance levels between $100 and $110. The path toward the upper blue band is clear in the short term. However, the magnitude of the move and the absence of any consolidation mean that the risk of a sharp correction is elevated the moment the geopolitical catalyst shows any sign of de-escalation.

Key Drivers Behind the Move

Strait of Hormuz disruption: The primary driver. Iran has responded to the conflict with blockades and mines that have drastically reduced flow through the strait, which handles roughly 25% of global oil. The U.S. and Israel have struck Iranian facilities (e.g. Kharg Island), but shipments remain disrupted. Trump has called for a naval coalition — including China and allies — though no firm progress has been made yet.

Supply shock: Partial Saudi production shut-ins, Chinese refineries (Sinopec) scaling back operations, and threats to Iranian exports are creating real supply deficits and fears of prolonged outages.

Market sentiment: Analysts at Reuters and Bank of America have raised their 2026 price forecasts. Fear of global stagflation and recession if the conflict persists. Strategic reserve releases are providing some relief, but not enough.

The monthly chart says it all at a glance: this move is not normal. WTI has surged from its long-term support band between $55 and $65 — a zone that held as a floor on multiple occasions since 2021 (marked by the green arrows) — to break above $100 in a matter of days, printing a monthly candle of near-unprecedented verticality in the recent history of crude oil.

The most significant technical development is that price has cleanly broken above the intermediate resistance zone around $80–85 without any meaningful pause and is now rapidly approaching the major historical resistance band between $110 and $120 — a level that acted as a ceiling for years between 2011 and 2014, and that also capped the post-pandemic rally in 2022. That zone will be the real test.

Technical Conclusion

The long-term structure is clear: oil has broken out of a multi-year accumulation range driven by an extraordinary catalyst. The natural technical target points to the $110–$120 zone. That said, a move of this violence rarely sustains itself without at least one pullback. Key levels to watch are $90 as the first support and $80–85 as critical support in the event of a conflict reversal.

Gold: Approaching $5,000 After Hitting All-Time Highs — Pause or New Bullish Leg?

Gold is trading today around $4,988, having gained more than 20% year-to-date in 2026, after printing an all-time high of $5,595 in late January. What the chart shows is one of the cleanest and most powerful rallies in the precious metal’s recent history.

The weekly chart reveals a textbook technical formation: a large cup and handle pattern that developed between 2020 and 2023, with price consolidating for years within the $1,750–$2,050 band — visible as the wide horizontal blue zone at the bottom of the chart. That nearly three-year accumulation base served as the launchpad for everything that followed.

From mid-2024 onwards, price began an almost uninterrupted climb, with successive short consolidations — marked by the dashed blue rectangles — acting as stepping stones: $3,200, then $3,450, then $4,050, and finally the major push in early 2026 toward $5,600. Every pause was a buying opportunity for the market.

Now, following the all-time high, price is in a correction and consolidation phase near the psychological $5,000 level, with solid support in the $5,000–$5,145 zone and resistance at $5,200–$5,240. This is a healthy pullback within a broader uptrend that remains fully intact.

Year-to-date, gold has gained approximately +16% (from levels around $4,300–$4,900 at the start of the year). Gold has been in consolidation mode near the psychological $5,000 barrier, with elevated volatility but no decisive additional bullish breakout in recent weeks.

Why Isn’t Gold Rallying More If There’s a War?

This is the great paradox of the moment. Gold prices slipped below $5,050 this week as a strengthening U.S. dollar and fading rate cut expectations outweighed the metal’s traditional safe-haven appeal. The dollar gained as investors sought liquidity following the announcement of the largest wave of strikes against Iranian targets. In other words: the very war that should be driving gold higher is simultaneously fueling inflation through oil prices — pushing Fed rate cuts further out and strengthening the dollar, both of which weigh on the metal.

Structural Pillars Remain Firmly in Place

Beyond the short term, the core driver of this market is official demand: 95% of central banks expect global gold reserves to increase over the next year, and 73% anticipate a reduction in the proportion of dollar-denominated reserves within five years. This structural reallocation of global reserves is the underlying engine sustaining the trend.

Technical Conclusion

The long-term uptrend is beyond dispute. The current correction from all-time highs is normal and healthy. The most likely scenario for the coming weeks is a series of sharp dips that continue to attract buyers, particularly during risk-off moments. The $5,000 level is the line in the sand: holding it preserves the bullish structure. Losing it convincingly would open the door to a test of the $4,800–$4,600 zone.

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