Are You Headed to the Mall Now?

For the first half of 2025, the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) was stuck under a downward sloping trendline, like a kid grounded for bad grades. But then summer school happened, and good things followed. In July, price finally broke above that line, which has twice since held support. August and November both saw successful retests.

Last week, XRT staged a ferocious rally, suggesting the upward trend may resume. Retail stocks aren’t always the most reliable leaders, but in this case, they aren’t trying to lead the market, merely follow it. As a coincidental indication, a move in retail could support a bullish outcome to what recently looked like a very bearish price trend until last week. So if the retail industry shows that it can support prices, perhaps it is worth checking out a mall right now. That is to say, mall stocks. 

This is Your Cuppa

Simon Property Group (SPG) has been quietly forming a classic cup and handle pattern. This setup occurs when a stock rounds out a base (the “cup”), then pulls back slightly (the “handle”), before breaking higher. It’s one of the most reliable bullish continuation patterns according to Technical Analysis author Tom Bulkowski.

SPG’s recent handle formation suggests the stock is ramping up for a strong upward trend. Since the breakout has recently happened, it could mark the start of a new leg higher, supported by its dominant position in the mall REIT sector. And let’s be honest — if you’re going to bet on malls, you could do worse than make a bet on the one that owns the most stores. After all, within this industry segment, SPG is the equivalent of the person who has the best parking spot in the garage reserved exclusively for them.

The Small Cap You Didn’t Know You Love

Tanger Inc. (SKT) may be small-cap, but don’t let that fool you — it’s backed by a big-brand outlet empire. This chart is also shaping up into its own cup and handle pattern, but it is a few days behind SPG, making it a more attractive ticker to research. If its fundamentals you like, then you’ll like what you find over the past two quarters. 

While the top line has beat, it has been close to expectations. Rather it is the bottom line that is…well…the bottom line. Despite solid growth in sales, profits have expanded ahead of pace, demonstrating that the management team has a strategy well matched for the times–a.k.a. buying quality on a discount.

If SKT completes its breakout, it could attract more attention from investors looking for value in retail real estate. Outlets may not have the glamour of luxury malls, but they do have the crowds — and the cash registers are ringing lately. Shoppers are desperate for deals this time of year, but it’s not all cyber-monday shopping. They are in for the on-site experience wherever they can stretch their dollar. Traders and investors might find SKT can help them stretch their gains as well.

Gordon Scott, CMT is a former managing director of the CMT Association and a current member of the Investopedia Financial Review board. He has over 20 years of experience as a coach and trader in securities, futures, forex, and penny stocks. He is a co-founder of Edge Finder. Learn more at https://myedgefinder.com/.

Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.