Tomorrow marks the first day of May, a time that often conjures up the old adage, “Sell in May and go away.” But should investors take that approach in 2026?

May has Averaged a 0.6% Loss in Midterm Years

Midterm years are historically challenging for equities and May is the second month of a tough stretch where five of six months (April through September) have seen the S&P 500 decline, on average, in midterm years. Those stats improve slightly in all years back to 1950 (+0.37%), but it’s still only been the eighth-best month.

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May hasn’t Lived Up to its Historically Bearish Reputation Recently

A below-average history hasn’t mattered for May since the current secular bull market began in 2013. Over the past 13 years, May has been lower only once, and averaged 1.5% gain, the third-best month for the S&P 500 during that time.

Sell in May hasn’t Worked Recently Either

Over those same 13 years, the full “Sell in May” period hasn’t worked out bearishly for investors either. The S&P 500’s return from the end of April to the end of October has been +6.6%, and lower only twice.

Trend Matters

Another nuance is that the trend matters. When the S&P 500 starts the Sell in May period above its 10-month moving average, the forward six-month average return improves dramatically, jumping from +2.1% in all years to +3.2%. When the index starts the period in a bearish trend, average returns are outright negative.

Technology has Reigned Supreme in May

Finally, what has historically outperformed in May? Technology and not much else. The two charts above show absolute returns (top chart) and relative returns (lower) for the 11 sectors

going back to 1990. Since then, the S&P 500 Information Technology Sector has outperformed the index by 0.9%, while only two other sectors (financials and staples) have averaged outperformance at all. We’ll see if semiconductors stretched tactical positioning (discussed earlier this week) will threaten that all.

The history of midterm years suggests investors should keep their head on a swivel. In fact, if the March 30 low for the S&P 500 holds for the year, it will be the first time since 1958 that the index made its yearly low in the first quarter.

However, the recent history of the “sell in May” period combined with its underlying trend should give investors pause before turning bearish based solely on the old saying.

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