Tomorrow marks the first Fed Day for newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh. Honestly, that still feels strange to say after all these years with Jerome Powell leading the charge.

Markets largely expect Warsh to hold rates steady at his first meeting and press conference. While some may be hoping for a rate cut, I don’t expect Warsh to come out swinging with a surprise move, especially with the latest CPI year-over-year reading coming in at 4.2%.

Fingers crossed.

Semiconductors Fill the Gap

Semiconductors sold off on Tuesday, giving back a large portion of Monday’s gap higher. There are a few ways to look at this.

It could be a fakeout, and as we all know, from failed moves come fast moves. However, with bullish seasonality on the horizon that should begin to kick in post-OPEX, this could also be a simple retest meant to shake out weak bulls before the next move higher.

My internal proprietary momentum swing-shift signal has also activated. So, this could be the famous fakeout, shakeout, breakout setup, as coined by an ex-floor trader some of you may even know.

For now, overhead call resistance sits at the 650-strike call level, and that level holds through July expiration in the current open interest configuration. That is the level bulls will want to see taken out and rolled higher into July if we are going to see another squeeze out of this rally into July OPEX.

Put support could remain intact around this area as well. It currently sits at the 590-strike and will reside between 585 and 605 over the following two weeks.

Semiconductors are certainly stretched, but as technicians, we know better than most that overbought can stay overbought for some time. Some of the best gains often occur near the end of the trend. So, I wouldn’t want to miss out on a massive rally into one of the most

bullish periods of the year in the hottest group of the market if animal spirits take hold. Like everyone else, I’ll be monitoring how this plays out.

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Banks Battling February Highs

Banks have thus far rejected their February highs and look to be stalling out for a consolidation or corrective phase after piercing their upper Bollinger Bands for multiple days in a row. This can be seen in both the Banks ETF (KBE) and the Regional Banks ETF (KRE).

The group is also printing a Sequential 9 count, and the prior two marked short- to intermediate-term exhaustion points on December 15, 2025, and February 10, 2026. It is no coincidence that this comes on the back of weaker yields, as banks remain highly correlated with the direction of rates.

The levels I would watch on the downside are the spring highs. KBE is notoriously thin when it comes to the options market. However, KRE is a more useful vehicle, and we have put support rolling higher post-June OPEX that will reside at the 70-strike level. Peak put support sits at the 65-strike, which also coincides with the December 2025 low and the March 2026 bottoming-base breakout level.

A Glittering Pivot

Gold was up nearly 30% in January, but since then, it has experienced a prolonged downtrend. It is now sitting near year-to-date breakeven after briefly moving negative on the year last week. So, it has been quite the ride for gold bugs.

While the recent move provided a great short-term tradable opportunity off near-term put support at the 380-strike, the shiny rock is now back near a critical pivot level, in our opinion. This level was created by the October high-topping candle and went on to mark both the December 2025 breakout and the March sell-off low.

Call open interest has been building between the 400- and 410-strikes, presenting a near-term wall that price needs to break through if gold wants to get some of its glamour back.

Price also remains clearly below all major moving averages, but the 200-day moving average is still sloping higher. If price rejects here, we expect the Gold ETF (GLD) to move toward the 360-strike, which marks overall peak put support. However, if price can break above this pivot, GLD could easily test the 420-strike peak call level, where the 50-day moving average is currently sitting for its next big test.

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