FOMC Meeting — The Fed in "Wait and See" Mode

The Federal Reserve held rates unchanged today at the 3.50%–3.75% range, a decision the market had priced in almost unanimously. The real focus of the session was the new dot plot and Powell’s press conference.

A more hawkish dot plot than expected. The March dot plot keeps the target rate at end-2026 at 3.4%, unchanged from the December estimate. However, the internal bias has shifted clearly: 14 members now anticipate one or no cut this year, compared to just 7 who held that view at the December meeting.

Inflation, the central knot. PCE inflation forecasts for 2026 were revised upward, from 2.4% to 2.7%, while core PCE also rose from 2.5% to 2.7%. The conflict in the Middle East further complicates the picture: markets are no longer pricing in cuts for 2026 and have pushed the first expected cut back to June 2027, while the Treasury curve has shifted higher with a marked flattening at the short end.

The shadow of the Fed transition. Powell’s term as Fed Chair expires on May 15, 2026. His designated successor, Kevin Warsh, is seen as more open to rate cuts supported by AI-driven productivity gains, but notably more hawkish when it comes to balance sheet reduction. Powell struck a more hawkish tone on inflation during the press conference, which drove the dollar and Treasury yields higher.

Rate-Sensitive Assets

- U.S. 10-Year Treasury (US10Y)

The most directly affected assets. The yield curve shifted higher with a marked flattening driven by increased pressure at the short end. A dot plot pointing to fewer cuts pushes yields up — and bond prices down — particularly across intermediate and long maturities.

- U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) - A Critical Juncture at 100

A "higher for longer" message strengthens the dollar as a carry asset. Asian currencies moved in a tight range amid fears over Iran and ahead of the Fed meeting, and the DXY accelerated following Powell’s comments, which markets interpreted with a more restrictive bias.

The FOMC outcome adds a clear bullish layer for the dollar in the short term. A hawkish hold should extend the DXY’s rally, as the Fed’s "higher for longer" stance maintains the dollar’s yield advantage amid global policy divergence and geopolitical risk. A policy divergence is also emerging while markets are beginning to price rate hikes from the ECB and Bank of England to combat energy-driven inflation; the Fed’s ability to stay restrictive should maintain the dollar’s yield advantage.

Outlook — Two Distinct Phases

The near-term picture supports dollar strength through April–May while the Iran conflict persists and the Fed remains on hold. However, the full-year trend remains one of net weakness — most forecasts place the DXY in the low-to-mid 90s by year-end if the conflict de-escalates and the Fed’s easing cycle resumes.

In short: the DXY is in a tactically bullish, structurally bearish position. A confirmed daily close above 100.34 would open the door to 101–102. Failure to hold 99.00 on a pullback would shift the short-term bias back toward the 96.45 support zone.

GC1 - Gold - The $5,000 Floor Cracks Under FOMC Pressure

The metal sits at a crossroads: it benefits from geopolitical uncertainty, but a stronger dollar and rising real yields push in the opposite direction. Gold held steady near $5,000 per ounce as traders awaited developments on the Iran conflict and the outcome of the Fed meeting, reflecting that tug-of-war between competing forces. Any shift in Powell’s tone could move it sharply in either direction.

Today’s Price Action — The Intraday Chart

The 1-minute chart tells the story of today’s session with unusual clarity. Gold opened around $5,020 in the Asian session and traded in a tight range through the European morning, holding comfortably above the $5,000 psychological level. Then, as the FOMC anticipation built from midday onward, selling accelerated sharply — the metal dropped nearly $200 in a matter of hours, breaking below $5,000 and finding a session low near $4,844. The orange VWAP, which had acted as dynamic support throughout the morning, rolled over and became resistance — a classic intraday signal of a momentum shift. The metal is currently stabilizing around $4,844–4,853, down roughly -4.2% on the day.

Gold broke the key $5,000 psychological support level as markets priced in a hawkish hold from the Fed, with rate cuts now potentially delayed to 2027 — a key downside catalyst. Notably, the dollar had not even begun to recover its weekly losses when gold started falling, which is a concern: if the DXY now rallies post-FOMC, that could be a further catalyst for downside in gold prices.

Gold is caught between two powerful opposing forces — a structurally intact multi-year bull trend driven by central bank demand and geopolitics, and short-term headwinds from a hawkish Fed and a resurgent dollar. Today’s break below $5,000 is significant and demands respect, but on the weekly chart it looks like a healthy — if sharp — pullback within a broader uptrend.

CL1 - WTI Crude Oil

Today’s Price Action — The Intraday Chart

The 1-minute chart reveals a day of extraordinary volatility shaped by two distinct phases. During the Asian and early European session, WTI sold off sharply from ~$97.50 all the way down to $91.50 — a move driven by profit-taking and diplomatic noise around Trump’s coalition-building efforts. Then, from 07:30 onward, a relentless recovery unfolded: oil prices jumped more than 4% after reports that Israel struck Iran’s largest gas processing facility in Bushehr Province — the first time Iran’s upstream oil and gas infrastructure has been targeted since the war began on February 28. The volume profile on the left side of the chart shows the heaviest concentration of traded volume between $97.00–97.50, confirming this as the market’s current center of gravity. WTI closed the session near $97.76, essentially flat on the day but after a swing of nearly $6 top to bottom.

The horizontal black line at $97.00 and the cyan line at $95.00 acted as key intraday pivots — both were reclaimed in the afternoon rally, a bullish signal heading into tomorrow’s session.

The Macro Backdrop — An Historic Supply Disruption

The geopolitical context behind these charts is unlike anything seen in decades.

The IEA has called this the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. Most of the seven Gulf countries that depend on the strait for exports have substantially reduced production — with estimated cuts reaching at least 10 million barrels per day as of March 12.

WTI is no longer trading on fundamentals — it is trading on war. The intraday volatility is extreme ($6+ daily swings); the supply shock is historically unprecedented, and the policy tools deployed so far have failed to contain prices. The path of least resistance remains upward if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, with $103–$110 as the next logical target. The only catalyst for a sustained reversal is a credible diplomatic breakthrough or a resumption of tanker traffic.

NASDAQ: APA - APA Corporation — A Textbook Oil Leverage Play

APA Corporation is an independent energy company that explores for, develops, and produces natural gas, crude oil, and natural gas liquids, with operations in the United States, Egypt, and the North Sea, plus active exploration in Suriname and Uruguay. Infobae It is precisely this multi-basin, international exposure that makes APA one of the most leveraged pure-play E&P names to the current oil shock.

The weekly chart spanning from 2008 to today is a masterclass in long-term technical structure. APA traded above $100 in 2008, then entered a decade-long structural decline that culminated in a catastrophic collapse to nearly $3.50 during the COVID crash of 2020 — the first "cup" drawn on the chart. The subsequent recovery back to the $50s by 2022 completed that cup, followed by another, smaller consolidation between $13 and $36 in 2024–2025 — the second, more recent cup-and-handle visible on the right side of the chart.

The Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the all-time high mark the key recovery targets on the way up: the 38.2% level at $42.29, the 50% at $54.18, and the 61.8% at $66.08. With price currently trading at $36.61 — still below the first retracement level — the stock retains significant structural upside if oil prices remain elevated.

APA is a high-beta, high-leverage expression of oil shock. The weekly chart shows a stock that has already doubled from its lows but remains well below historical highs and key Fibonacci levels. With oil above $97, free cash flow is surging, the balance sheet is healing, and the next earnings report on May 6 will be the first true read on how the crisis is translating into profits. The key risk is a swift diplomatic resolution to the Iran conflict — which would likely send both crude and APA sharply lower.

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