Targets and Probabilities

European and Asian natural gas prices spiked during the past week as the conflict in the Middle East intensified. U.S. Henry Hub natural gas futures were also affected by these geopolitical pressures, but the price increase was less pronounced. This analysis will examine where the Henry Hub futures price may go during the next week or so using technical analysis.

The April 2026 Henry Hub natural gas futures contract came into the week with a slight bullish lean. Prices gapped higher on Monday, March 9, and rose to $3.494, where a confluent target around $3.47 was challenged. However, prices pulled back sharply throughout the day and settled at $3.13. This filled the gap (no pun intended for those who listen to the CMT Association’s insightful “Fill the Gap” podcast) and strongly implies that a deeper test of support will occur in the coming days. Prices are already challenging a highly confluent and crucial target at $3.05 during the post-settlement trading hours and are poised to test at least $2.95 and probably $2.89 tomorrow. Closing below $2.89 will imply that the move up from the recent $2.775 swing low is complete and call for another attempt to settle below $2.78 and test a bearish decision point at $2.68 in the coming days.

Nevertheless, volatility is high, and $3.05 is a potential stalling point for the pullback from $3.494. Should prices rally again and exceed $3.22, look for a test of $3.32. Closing above $3.32 will suggest that the pullback from $3.494 is complete and call for a test of key resistance at $3.47. Settling above $3.49 will put the odds back in favor of April natural gas rising to $3.57 and then testing a longer-term bullish decision point at $3.69.

Daily Chart

The April 2026 contract and its daily chart reflect a bearish market for natural gas. The April contract spiked in late January to $4.085 but failed to overcome a triple top that formed around $4.13 between the $4.140, $4.131, and $4.118 swing highs. The initial double top that formed between $4.140 and $4.131 was confirmed by a close below the $3.464 swing low, and the triple top was confirmed by a close below the $3.301 swing low. The $2.78 target of the

double top was taken out when prices fell to $2.604, but was recently respected by the $3.775 swing low, confirming the importance of this objective. The target of the triple top is $2.440. Additionally, the wave down from $4.118 calls for an eventual test of its $2.55 equal to (1.00) target.

More recently, the first wave up from $2.775 (purple) fulfilled its $3.47 intermediate (1.382) target. This threshold is also in line with the 50 percent retracement from $4.085 (magenta) and sits just below the 200-day moving average. This area held, and prices pulled back sharply on Monday. The $3.47 level is still a factor because it is now the smaller than (0.618) target of the largest wave up from $2.775 (dark red). Settling above $3.47 would call for a test of confluent resistance at $3.59 and then a bullish decision point at $3.69 that connects to $4.26 and higher.

$0.035 Kase Bar Chart

Nevertheless, the outlook for at least the next few days and likely the coming weeks is bearish for U.S. natural gas. Looking at a $0.035 Kase Bar chart, which is a chart that uses True Range rather than time to determine the size of each bar, shows that April natural gas challenged a highly confluent and key target around $4.05 late Monday. Most importantly, this is the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $2.775 (royal blue). Typically, a sustained close below 62 percent of a move will indicate that the move is complete. Therefore, in this case, a sustained close below $3.05 will strongly suggest that the move from $2.775 is a completed correction.

Settling below $3.050 will also call for a test of $2.95 and likely the $2.89 XC (2.764) projection of the first wave down from $3.494 (light green). This is another important target because it is in line with the $2.891 corrective swing low of the first wave up from $2.775 (dark red). Settling below $2.89 will invalidate this wave and its potential to extend to $3.57 and higher. Furthermore, settling below $2.89 will call for another attempt to close below $2.78, which is also a confluent projection of the wave formation down from $3.494. Closing below $2.78 will confirm a bearish outlook for the coming weeks and call for a test of the $2.68 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $4.085 (dark cyan). Setting below this will clear the way for $2.55 and possibly lower.

Continuation Chart – Weekly Chart

Finally, it is important to note that the trendline up from $1.481 on the weekly continuation chart was tested and held last week after sustaining a close below this threshold for the past few weeks. It is common to see a test of a trendline after it has broken, and if it continues to hold on a closing basis, that will indicate that the recent move up is a correction and that prices will continue to fall. Settling back above this trendline would imply that a false break occurred, which would be bullish for the outlook in the coming weeks.

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